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Russian Leaders want to show their Strength especially to Europeans

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First of all it must be stressed that exports of Russian products are not very varied. And in fact, what does Russia export ? The top 3 exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum, Refined Petroleum and Petroleum Gas. It should also be pointed out that Russia's main imports are machinery, chemical products, foodstuffs and agricultural products. In a nutshell, Europe needs Russia in terms of energy. And Russia needs Europe to boost its economy but also to meet the needs of its population. The Kremlin has repeated that it was not using gas as a geopolitical weapon. For its part Europe's energy needs are increasingly high, especially in winter. It must also be stressed that the EU receives 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines. That said the scenario of Russian leaders cutting off all supplies to Europe is not very believable. Indeed, such a decision would have a major financial cost for Moscow. However, and to be able to handle all situations European authorities have been making contingency plans. For example, EU governments have increased orders of shipped liquefied natural gas cargoes mainly from the US and Qatar. Moreover, Eurasia Group analysts pointed out that Europe options to mitigate a full supply disruption would consist of asking alternative pipelines such as Algeria, Azerbaijan and Norway. However, what is more likely if tensions escalate is a partial disruption of Russian gas flow to the EU via Ukraine. Now what would happen if Russia attacked Ukraine ? The answer is not evident. But one can think that neither the EU nor Russia would have an interest in aggravating the situation. So make way for diplomacy.

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