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Are we on the Brink of a War for Food ?

To understand the magnitude of this crisis we must point out two major facts. First of all Russia and Ukraine together account for almost a third of world wheat exports. And in addition, we must also worry about the fact that grain prices and transport costs are exploding. We have understood, and rightly so, that we must not only depend on foreign countries for our medicines.But ensuring our food security is even more essential. And we thought, but wrongly , that food insecurity could only concern developing countries. Today wheat from Ukraine appears more important than oil from Russia. And we can perfectly imagine the consequences of a stranglehold by Russia on Ukraine. We see a situation that does not lead to optimism. The increase in food prices is observed almost everywhere around the world. As of May 5th 2022, the Agricultural Price Index is up 41% compared to January 2021 (Re:World Bank). And we should expect this substantial price increase to continue at least until the end of 2024. In this difficult context, it is necessary to underline a constant increase in the price of fertilizer: more than 20% since January 2022 and three times higher compared to a year ago (Re:World Bank). It is also necessary to remember that Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer export countries. Finally it is also important to stress that even before the current crisis more than 800 million people have been found to suffer from hunger and more than 2 billion people lacked access to adequate food (Re.UN). Unfortunately this current severe crisis can only aggravate the gloomy global situation.

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