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Real Economic Sanctions can have a Big Effect

By World Economic Forum Copyright by World Economic Forum Photo by Remy Steinegger [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/lic

The EU has recently extended to the end of January 2017 the economic sanctions against Russia.These sanctions which were introduced in 2014 are the result of the Russian decision to annex Crimea. On the other hand, Pt Putin, has extended the embargo on food against the EU and other Western countries until 31 December 2017. It is not an easy task to assess the impact of sanctions or counter-sanctions imposed by Russia in retaliation.In fact, many experts rightly believe that the collapse of oil prices and the subsequent devaluation of the ruble have far more serious consequences for the Russian economy than the sanctions which were adopted in the context of the Russia/Ukraine dispute. However, these sanctions which affect the population itself -higher food prices etc...- are not treated lightly by the Russian authorities. But it should also be kept in mind that the ban on food imports to Russia affects negatively a few Western countries.This is particularly striking in the case of Italy.Since the introduction of this embargo in 2014, the cost for the Italian agricultural sector is estimated to more than € 600 million.However, the overall impact on the EU economy has been rather limited -a GDP drop by 0,2%-. In contrast, the impact on the Russian economy could be far more devastating.Independent analyses estimated that the financial sanctions alone -such as restricting Russia's access to international financial markets- already amounted to a € 170 billion loss.As a result, and according to IMF in 2015 Western sanctions brought a 2.5% drop in the Russian GDP. Having said that, we are betting on a suspension or an easing of the European sanctions against Russia within the next eighteen months in spite of the lack of concrete solutions to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. This is commonly referred to as " Realpolitik ".

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