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Fears and Received Ideas

A demographic apocalypse? It seems that previous studies were based on wrong predictions. It is a fact that the number of people on the planet has increased dramatically, from 2.5 billion in 1950 to an estimated 7.5 billion in 2013. As a result experts stressed that humanity would run out of food, water and energy resources if population exceeds 9 billion. On the contrary, numerous other experts today underline that world population may actually start declining and not exploding. Indeed the rate of global population growth has slowed.- 2.1- live births per woman, this is the figure required to maintain population equilibrium. When we look at the Europe of today, in Germany the birth rate is 1.36, in Italy 1.4, in Spain 1.48 and in Holland 1.8. Western Europe as a whole may see its population diminish from 460 million to 350 million by the end of the century. Russia's demographic outlook is even bleaker. India's fertility rate dropped from 6 to 3. It finds that already more than half the world's population is reproducing at below the replacement rate. We speak today about depopulation! The fear is a long term decline accompanied by population aging. Another received idea: the number of those who live in abject poverty is growing. On the contrary, figures today clearly show a dramatic decline in absolute poverty around the world.In the 1990's 43% of the planet's inhabitants were living on less than $1.25 per day; the corresponding proportion fell to 21% in 2010. Poverty has fallen more within 1 or 2 generations than ever before in the history of humanity! And the World Bank, although this may seem overly optimistic, estimates that it should be possible to eradicate absolute poverty by 2030. The world's population should find its own appropriate balance; poverty has decreased substantially; the end of chronic hunger is within reach. That is the reality which is far from the generally accepted ideas.

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